Main electricity source in 2060?

zaterdag 25 september 2010

Peak Oil

Peak oil is the phenomenon of depleting oil reserves. The 'peak' is when production is at its maximum; after the peak it will go down and if this happens world wide, hell can break loose. The demand for oil will continue to rise for the next 40 years, mainly because of the economic growth of China, India, Russia and Brazil. Production will decrease, this automatically leads to increased prices (high demand + low production = high prices), even further fueled by speculation.
A lot of countries and areas already experienced a peak in production and are declining, see:


It is unknown when the worldwide peak will happen. Speculations are somewhere between 2010 and 2040. A slightly negative view of what could happen:
Note that this graph has been made in 2005, BEFORE the financial crisis. As you can see the unemployment and recession as predicted in the graph is already taking place now, anno 2010. Next thing to happen are brownouts and blackouts, though I think this will only happen when the production of oil will suddenly decrease, not as a result of regular depleting resources.

My own prediction is that the next 10 years will be okay, maybe oil prices now and then rising above 100-120 dollar per barrel, but no big deal. After that things will get worse. As I see it now, both politicians and most people don't want to spend too much money on wind/solar power or even nuclear plants. Only when oil prices will reach $150 or even $200 and remain above that for at least 3 years people will wake up. Then it will be too late though. Not only will electricity and car fuel become very expensive (expect at least 3x the current prices), but also ALL the products you buy in the supermarket or at any other store will become way more expensive. This is because the price of oil and therefore the price of fuels and electricity has a direct effect on ALL prices.
Governments all over the world will invest in wind power and/or nuclear, and eventually the demand for oil will decrease as well. Just in time before famine and anarchy will take place.
Summary of my prediction:
It's uncertain when this all will happen, maybe a huge oil deposit will be found under the north pole, or in Siberia or Brazil or wherever. But, finding new oil only POSTPONES the peak oil. There is no way it can be prevented at all.

Sleep well,

Matt

35 opmerkingen:

  1. some interesting stuff here.. keep up the good posts

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  2. all this effort we put into getting oil , should of just spent all that time and money on something better

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  3. We are in serious trouble when this happens!

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  4. betwen 2010 and 2040 IS TOOOO BROAD for a speculation. what the heck its already 2010!!

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  5. Sounds scary. Hopefully, we will get smart enough to switch to alternatives before it all goes to hell. I know i will.

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  6. i found this post to be very informative as well as frightening.

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  7. I suppose we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

    There just isn't much else we can do.

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  8. Well I sure hope by the time I get my car running and every thing oil prices are not over board, I just finished spending 10k + on my fucking car! ahhaha damn it, I need to hurry and finish my car and have fun before all these gas and oil prices go up, or I might just convert my engine to E85 and make it california smog exempt haha I wish!

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  9. I read about peak oil recently... scary as shit!

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  10. I hope we get a new energy source before shit hits the fan and we run out of oil.

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  11. WHAT THE HELL :( THE PRICE OF MY FAVORITE MOTOR OIL HAS GONE UP 1 DOLLAR WE ARE TOTALLY SCREWED I HATE YOU REDLINE MOTOR OIL :( BRING YOUR PRICES DOWN!

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  12. As long as we can make it to renewable energy by the time oil is nearly gone. But the problem is no more plastics either...

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  13. Watch the movie called "Collapse" if you're interested in peak oil. We should start harvesting helium 3 on the moon and fund more fusion research.

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  14. Well... That was certainly interesting... Followed.

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  15. check out the podcast skeptoid.

    there's an episode on this.

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  16. really makes you think about what'll happen in the future

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  17. Showing the love Brother, Hope to see some back.

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  18. I wonder what will happen after we use up all the oil. :P

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  19. The scramble to find new sources will be intense, too bad it will be way too late

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  20. We only use oil because people make a profit from it...

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  21. Wow crazy....looks like I better invest in a bike.

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